What the Iowa Results Really Mean
Posted: Friday, January 04, 2008
by Terry Mitchell
http://commenterry.blogs.com
Now that the Iowa Caucuses are over, what do the results really mean anyway?
For the Democrats, Barack Obama's big win takes away Hillary Clinton's air of inevitability and gives him a head of steam going into New Hampshire. More than likely, he will shoot to the top of the polls in New Hampshire over the weekend and Clinton might not have a chance to stem the tide before Tuesday's primary. If Obama could get a win in New Hampshire, another overwhelmingly-white state, it would almost certainly lead to a win in South Carolina, where African-Americans make up approximately half of Democratic primary voters. This is a scenario that Clinton has feared for months.
John Edwards didn't get the win he desperately needed in Iowa, but he did manage to finish ahead of Clinton. He will stay around to compete in New Hampshire, although he is running low on resources after spending most of them in Iowa. However, as was the case four years (when he also finished second in Iowa), he will not likely do well in New Hampshire. If that ultimately proves to be the case, he'll probably be forced to drop out shortly thereafter.
Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Mike Gravel have already seen the handwriting on the wall and have dropped out. Look for Bill Richardson to soon follow suit. Dennis Kucinich will likely stay around indefinitely, but he's just along for the ride.
For the Republicans, Mike Huckabee's win legitimizes his heretofore-shoestring campaign and will likely start bringing him the money he's deperately needed. Whether the new influx of cash will come quickly enough to allow him to compete in the larger states down the road remains to be seen. Huckabee overcame a barrage of negative ads by Mitt Romey, who outspent him nearly 15 to one. He will get a bounce in New Hampshire but will not likely win it. New Hampshire seems a bit too libertarian for the likes of an evangelical like Huckabee. However, he still has a decent shot at a respectable third-place finish there. Look for him to zero in on South Carolina, a place that appears to be fertile ground for what he hopes to be his next big win and where his Iowa victory will solidify the already substantial lead he enjoys in the polls.
Mitt Romney's less-than-impressive second-place finish deals a devastating blow to his campaign, despite all his spin about getting the "silver medal." He had spent far more time and money in Iowa than any other GOP candidate but got little to show for it. He will now have five days to fight for his political life in New Hampshire. If he loses there, he's done. Look for Romney to pull out all the stops to try to bring John McCain down. Even if he is successful, it may backfire on him and ultimately benefit someone else -- like Huckabee.
McCain wanted three things last night and got two of them. What he wanted more than anything else was the Huckabee victory over Romney. Another thing he wanted was a third-place finish for himself and he pretty much got that, albeit a virtual tie with Fred Thompson. What he didn't get was an Obama loss. Obama's win means that he, along with Ron Paul, will be able to siphon independent voters away from McCain in New Hampshire. McCain relied heavily on independent voters for his 2000 victory there over George W. Bush. However, because of Romney's loss in Iowa, McCain will now likely be a heavy favorite to win New Hampshire.
Fred Thompson needed two things last night and got neither of them. First, he really needed a Huckabee loss. Huckabee is his main rival for southern, socially-conservative voters. Huckabee's victory now deprives Thompson of a chance to use the southern primaries as a means of making a comeback. The other thing he needed was a solid third-place finish. A tie with McCain won't cut it. Look for Thompson to pull out soon after New Hampshire.
Ron Paul, with his impressive 10% showing, will continue on indefinitely while Rudy Giuliani will compete in New Hampshire but still mainly focus on Florida's January 29th primary. Giuliani's fate will likely not be decided until then, unless Huckabee or McCain were to become unstoppable beforehand. Duncan Hunter will probably drop out soon.
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Top-level comments on this article: (4 total)Terry, I enjoy reading your work. We do differ on some things but that is life, but I was wondering, just who are you voting for and why? I've spoken to who I am but can you tell me and perhaps us what these candidates have said that would make anyone vote for them. Better yet, lets put aside their rhetoric and talk and focus on their works and deeds and substantiated deeds at that? can you write to that and embellish who you think you might select and why? I certainly like what Edwards says and for the most part some others but I do have a big lump when it comes to immigration [oh sorry] illegal workers. I forgot and must have been brainwashed. All the best and keep writing RTMRobert, thanks for reading and commenting on my articles. I try to write these types of articles from a impartial, non-partison perspective -- you know, like the media is supposed to but doesn't. I try to focus mainly on the horse race without getting into the issues.
However, I do have opinions, as you can see from my commentary-style articles. Since you asked me, I will tell you that I like only two of the candidates -- Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. I would not consider any of the rest. All of the Democrats are too liberal for me. By liberal I mean they believe in a big, paternalistic government that tries to do for people what they can do for themselves. I also don't like their pro-abortion stance and their support for the militant gay lobby's agenda. But I also don't like the pro-war neocons in the Republican party. I'm pretty much a libertarian, but I also like candidates like Huckabee, who are not afraid to wear their religion on their sleeves. These are the kind of candidates that drive the elitists and religiphobics crazy. More power to them!
By the way, to see a more comprehensive treatise of my personal politics, see the following links: http://commenterry.blogs.com/commenterry/2007/02/a_viewpoint_not.html
http://commenterry.blogs.com/about.html
OK, Terry, where is your analysis of the NH Debate? You have become one of my favorite political commentators. I was hoping you were TiVo-ing the dems and would have "part one" of the debate waiting for my perusal last night. Thanks for sharing your insight with us.LM, altough I watch every debate carefully, I generally avoid commenting on them. Debate "results" are just so subjective. I like to stick to the actually voting. I will say that I think Obama did a good job of blowing off Hillary's attacks last night, whereas Mitt didn't do so well defending himself against McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, and Giuliani. I'm really looking forward to that GOP debate on Fox tonight. It's going to be a real knock-down-drag-out affair and Mitt better be ready this time or he'll soon be toast. On Tuesday, I'll post a "what to look for" article about the New Hampshire Primary and then another "what the results mean" article on Wednesday. Thanks for reading my articles. I'm glad you enjoy them.
I also enjoy your commentaries but have never told you so. Now you know. I am told I could be a politician and didn't know if I should have been offended or was complimented. Seeing the glass half fool, perhaps both? I do not get into discussions about politics as I tend to be private about my political stances. I admire political analysts and always look forward to what you have to say. I don't look for agreement but your analysis of what's happening during the campaign season and afterwards. Thank you for trying to be non-biased. I think you do a fantastic job!
Avis Ward again. I'm laughing as that was a Freudian slip or typo?!? "Seeing the glass half 'empty' not 'fool'! Happy New Year!Avis, thanks for reading my articles. I'm glad you enjoy them. I'll try to keep more of them coming throughout the campaign season. I've always fantasized about being a real political analyst. By the way, for everyone who enjoys my articles, you can find much more on my personal blog by clicking on the "Politics" tab on the right side. Some of it is poltical analysis which other stuff is politcal opinion. I try to keep analysis and opinion in separate articles. It should be fairly easy to tell which is which.
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