Home » My Humble Analysis for Election Night

For John McCain, Election Night will be a game of survival not unlike a sports team in the playoffs -- win and go on or lose and go home.

 

Of the states that close the earliest, I will be looking at Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina. If Barack Obama wins two of those three, it's over. You can turn off your TV and go to bed. That's because these states have been Republican presidential strongholds over the past several decades. If McCain lost two of these, he would almost certainly not be able to pick up enough blue states to make up for them.

 

If McCain survives the early states, I'll wait for the next round of states to close their polls. I'll be watching Missouri, Ohio, and Florida. If Obama wins any of those three, it's over unless McCain can steal Pennsylvania to make up for the loss. Republicans have difficultly being elected president without winning Missouri, Ohio, and Florida.

 

If McCain's hopes are still alive by the time the Mountain Time states come in, he'll need to win either Colorado or a combination of New Mexico and Nevada. If he can do that, he'll likely be the next president. If Obama wins all three of these states, don't be surprised he is very competitive in -- or perhaps even wins -- McCain's home state of Arizona. I was laughed at by my extended family when I mentioned this possibly at a birthday dinner yesterday evening. However, I have a feeling that McCain won't think it's so funny if an embarrassment in his home state adds insult to the injury of a loss in the presidential election.

 

By the way, we don't have to wait for the west coast states (they are certain Obama), Alaska (certain McCain), or Hawaii (certain Obama).