Terry Mitchell

Analysis of the 2012 Iowa GOP Caucus Results



Posted: Wednesday, January 04, 2012

by Terry Mitchell
http://commenterry.blogs.com

Mitt Romney got approximately the same percentage that he received in the 2008 Iowa caucuses. Back then, it only got him a distant second place finish which, combined with his subsequent loss to John McCain in New Hampshire, ultimately proved to be his undoing. However, it was enough to edge out Rick Santorum by eight votes for first place this time around. Romney’s showing, while far from decisive, allows him to maintain his status as national frontrunner and favorite to capture the nomination, as he now heads into New Hampshire, where he currently has a sizeable lead in the polls. And he probably doesn’t mind the fact that the two guys who finished in the top tier with him in Iowa will be hard-pressed to seriously challenge him for the nomination (see below).

Santorum used a shoe-string campaign and old fashioned retail politics to come out of nowhere and ride a late surge to finish in a virtual tie with Romney for first place. However, Santorum still has little cash and not much national organization, which leaves him with some major challenges going forward, in spite of his great showing in Iowa. Now the question he has to answer – and soon – is whether he will able to raise enough money and create a large enough organization in time to take advantage of the momentum he will get coming out of Iowa to become a serious contender for the nomination.

Ron Paul finished a close third, more than doubling his Iowa percentage from four years ago. However, he still has little or no chance of winning the nomination, and Iowa will probably end up being his high-water mark during the primary and caucus season.

All of those negative ads from the political action committees which Newt Gingrich has complained about so vehemently took their toll on him, knocking him out of the top tier to a distant fourth. However, on the bright side for him, he still managed to finish ahead of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, which means he will likely have two fewer candidates to compete with for the anti-Romney vote going forward into New Hampshire, South Carolina, and beyond. And we can now expect him to throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at Romney from this point forward.

Perry’s disappointing fifth-place finish ends any realistic chance that he had of becoming the nominee. He is now going back to Texas to re-assess his campaign. He has enough resources to go on to South Carolina to make one last stand, should he decide to continue his campaign.

Bachmann, who finished a distant sixth, despite the fact that she was born in Iowa and won the Ames straw poll in August, will now be under tremendous financial and political pressure to bow out soon.

John Huntsman did not compete in the state and is staking his campaign on a strong finish in New Hampshire next week.

UPDATE: On January 19, the final certified results released by the Iowa GOP showed that Rick Santorum actually edged Mitt Romney out by 34 votes. Santorum was then declared the winner.
Terry Mitchell is a software engineer, freelance writer, amateur political analyst, and blogger from Virginia, USA. He posts a least one article a day to his blog - http://commenterry.blogs.com - on subjects such as current events, politics, technology, society and culture, religion, health and well-being, self improvement, personal finance, trivia, and sports. He is also the owner of a new privacy-enhanced search engine - http://www.SearchMost.com.

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