Why Gingrich Shouldn’t Be Counted Out Just Yet
Posted: Thursday, January 05, 2012
by Terry Mitchell
http://commenterry.blogs.com
Most of the national media, Republican establishment, and elite conservative punditry have already counted Newt Gingrich out of the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. I think they are making a big mistake. For some unknown reason, they all seem to be ignoring that Gallup tracking poll that is showing Gingrich just three points behind Romney nationally, as of January 3rd. And they seem to be missing something that should be very obvious to any impartial observer. That is, Gingrich still has a shot at becoming the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. He could win a war of attrition, and if can do that early enough, he’s back in the game.
In addition, Santorum coming out of Iowa could be like a fish coming out of the water. Look at what happened to Mike Huckabee in 2008, even after he won a decisive victory in Iowa. Like Santorum, Huckabee was appealing to social and religious conservatives, but not so much to fiscal conservatives and other wings of the Republican Party. Huckabee also seemed to come out of nowhere to perform well in Iowa, like Santorum did this time. However, even with his big victory from Iowa in hand, Huckabee was only able to garner 11% of the vote in New Hampshire. Having come off a less impressive performance in Iowa than Huckabee had four years ago, Santorum is not likely to even get as much as the unimpressive 11% that Huckabee got in New Hampshire then. Such a poor performance could send his campaign into an irreversible tailspin before he gets to South Carolina.
As for Ron Paul, who finished in third place in Iowa with 21% of the vote, he will probably do pretty well in New Hampshire, but will likely get a smaller percentage of the vote than he did in Iowa. After than point, Paul will be less and less of a factor, with his percentages dropping progressively with each successive primary or caucus, until they level off at a range of about 8 to 12 percent. That’s because, after New Hampshire, most of the states’ primaries and caucuses are open only to registered Republicans, keeping out independents and Democrats who tend to favor Paul. Of course, Paul’s rabid followers will say, “No, no, no, this won’t happen”, but just wait and see if it doesn’t.
And there’s a chance that Gingrich could use Romney’s big lead in New Hampshire to his own advantage if he plays his cards right. Romney is currently leading in the various New Hampshire polls by anywhere from 15 to as much as 30 percentage points. Gingrich does not have to overtake him to claim victory. All he has to do is finish second, with Romney’s margin of victory at less than double digits. He has nearly a whole week to make this happen. If he could, he could then call himself the “Comeback Kid” like Bill Clinton did following his closer-than-expected second place finish in New Hampshire in 1992. From there, he could use the momentum to defeat Romney in South Carolina, a state whose primary winner has gone on to win the GOP nomination in every presidential election year since 1980.
One other thing to consider as well – Gingrich has made his political living during this campaign cycle via his debate performances. After a long dry spell during the holiday season (which likely factored into his drop in the polls), there are plenty more debates now coming up in short order. In fact, there will be two debates between now and the New Hampshire primary, two debates after New Hampshire and before the South Carolina primary, and two debates after South Carolina and before the Florida primary. That could be just what the doctor ordered for an ailing Gingrich.
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Top-level comments on this article: (1 total)You've hit it right on the head Terry, an excellent article. Frankly I don't believe Romney will be the final choice. Some of the reading I get indicates that much of the Republican Party hierarchy doesn't do not want him either. I could accept either of these three if it came down to it, but I would prefer Gingrich. He is a "can-do" man as Lady Bird referred to Lyndon. The only thing that would make me reconsider Romney would be if he manages to talk Condileeza Rice into running with him, which is rumored that he may.Joel, thanks for reading and commenting. I'm glad you agree.
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