Analysis of the 2012 New Hampshire GOP Primary
Posted: Wednesday, January 11, 2012
by Terry Mitchell
http://commenterry.blogs.com
Mitt Romney won as expected, although he was kept just below the 40% threshold. Even though some people considered it a given that he was going to win here, given the fact that he is the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, it is still a decisive and impressive victory just the same. His opponents were hoping to come out of New Hampshire relatively unscathed, as they headed into the "real" battle in South Carolina. They had no such luck. Romney becomes the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in the same year. That puts him in a commanding position, going into South Carolina, where he could likely seal the nomination for all intents and purposes with a win. But first, he'll have to endure a barrage of withering attack ads from his conservative opponents.
Jon Huntsman skipped Iowa and staked his entire campaign on New Hampshire. He seemed to be surging toward second place in the days leading up to the primary, but finished a solid, but somewhat distant, third. I’m not sure where this leaves Huntsman’s campaign, and the disappointment showed on his face, even as he was vowing to go on to South Carolina. It is difficult to imagine him drawing any more than the 17% he got here in any of the subsequent contests. Most polls have him at less than 5% in South Carolina, and it doesn’t seem like the kind of state that would be fertile ground for him.
Newt Gingrich barely edged out Rick Santorum for a distant fourth place finish, his second in as many contests. Although he had hoped to do much better, he is still running second to Romney in most national polls, and is planning to make a major stand in South Carolina and lead the charge against Romney in hopes of stopping his march to the nomination. Finishing ahead of Santorum and Rick Perry may help Gingrich position himself as the conservative alternative to Romney in South Carolina. However, anything less than a win there would probably mean his campaign is finished.
Like Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum found out the hard way that New Hampshire is a much different place from Iowa. He dropped from a virtual tie for first in the latter to almost a virtual tie for a distant fourth (fifth to be more exact) in the former. However, the good news for Santorum is that South Carolina is much more like Iowa than New Hampshire. He hopes to beat out Gingrich and Rick Perry for the Palmetto State’s large social conservative population and pull out a win there. As is the case with Gingrich, nothing less than a win in South Carolina would keep his campaign alive.
Rick Perry did not compete in New Hampshire so his very weak sixth place showing should not have come as a surprise to anyone. Aside from the two debates in New Hampshire, he has spent most the last five days getting a head start in South Carolina, where he thinks he can finish in the top two. If he can’t, he might as well pack it in.
UPDATE: The certified results that were released about a week after the primary showed that Rick Santorum actually finished fourth and Newt Gingrich fifth.
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Top-level comments on this article: (1 total)It's been interesting, for sure. About a year ago I started saying that Romney was going to be the Republican nominee. For the simple reason that Romney looks more presidential than the others, and historically that counts for at least 50% of the reason a candidate is voted for. I also think there are still old-school Republicans with enough power behind the scenes to pull the strings to help prevent a Tea Partier from getting the nomination.
If Romney is the nominee, the next question is who's going to run as third-party candidate? Since the Tea Party makes up such a sizable part of the Republican party, and many of them simply can't vote for Romney on principle, AND they are the political group most likely to throw an election on principle, there's going to be a third-party candidate. It seems like Ron Paul is in the best position for this.
One thing for sure, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.Bruce, thanks for reading and commenting. I think you're analysis is right on target and that you are absolutely right about a third party candidate emerging. Many conservatives like myself are tired of settling for less than what we want, just so a "more electable" person can be nominated.
The snobbish GOP elite and insiders are always telling us it's necessary to coalesce around such a candidate because we must stop some big bad "evil" Democrat like Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, or Barack Obama from getting elected or re-elected, or else it's going to be the end of world! Please note that two of of their so-called "electable" candidates were President Bob Dole and President John McCain. And I don't buy their argument that we need to nominate/elect someone who is "presidential". Haven't we had enough "presidential" presidents already? Look where that has gotten us. I think it's high time we try one that's not presidential. He or she probably couldn't do any worse.
At any rate, I'm supporting Newt Gingrich to the bitter end. Romney is unelectable, and I will support a third party candidate if he is nominated, just like I did in 2008 when McCain was nominated. I decided then that I was not going to settle anymore.
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