Suddenly, Romney Doesn’t Look So Inevitable
Posted: Thursday, January 19, 2012
by Terry Mitchell
http://commenterry.blogs.com
Wow, how quickly things can change in the world of politics! Just a couple of days ago, it seemed all but certain that Mitt Romney was headed toward a coronation by the GOP as its 2012 presidential nominee. He was the frontrunner, cruising along as the odds-on favorite to capture the nomination. Many viewed him as the presumptive nominee, even at this early stage. And was it any wonder that he was in such a position?
Now fast-forward a couple of days. Romney’s historic distinction in winning Iowa and New Hampshire has suddenly been snatched away. On Thursday, it was revealed that Romney is no longer being declared the winner in Iowa. The certified final results showed that Santorum actually finished in the top spot by 34 votes, erasing Romney’s previous 8-vote “win”. After first stating that it will officially go into the books as a tie because there were a handful of precincts that could not be accurately counted, the Iowa GOP reversed itself and declared Santorum the winner.
Romney’s fortunes in the polls are also starting to reverse. After having held an 18 to 20 point lead over Gingrich nationally, the two most recent polls of likely Republican primary and caucus voters nationwide now show Romney’s margin at three and seven points, respectively. In South Carolina, where Romney’s margin is also starting to shrink in most of the polls, Gingrich has actually moved ahead of him in the only three polls (so far) that do not include any samples prior to Wednesday, by margins of three, two, and six points, respectively. All the other available polls of South Carolina voters include samples from Tuesday and before.
But it gets worse. On Thursday, Perry bowed out of the race and endorsed Gingrich. Now, the social conservative vote is split only two ways, and could consolidate even more behind Gingrich by Saturday, when the voters go to the polls. With Gingrich now battling Romney for first place in South Carolina, and Perry having dropped out and endorsed Gingrich, some of Santorum’s supporters might switch to Gingrich to block Romney from winning the primary. Santorum, currently floundering in fourth place and showing no positive movement in the polls, would appear to have little or no chance for victory in South Carolina, anyway.
Romney may indeed weather this sudden storm and win South Carolina, and ultimately the nomination. It would still be foolish to bet against him at this point. After all, things changed quickly, so they could just as easily change quickly again, next time in his favor. Like they say, a span of a few days is an eternity in politics. However, now that Romney’s air of inevitability has been shattered, he appears to have his work cut out for him.
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Top-level comments on this article: (2 total)Great article Terry, go read the one I just posted. You'll find itin the conservative listingJoel, thanks for reading and commenting. I just read your article and left a comment.
If you love and believe in the constitution there is only one choice RON PAUL 2012Kenny, that's spoken like a true Ron Paul supporter. :-)
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