Analysis of the 2012 Florida GOP Primary
Posted: Wednesday, February 01, 2012
by Terry Mitchell
http://commenterry.blogs.com
Mitt Romney’s big win re-establishes him as the frontrunner and odds-on favorite to win the nomination. After his setback in South Carolina, he needed to come out fighting, and that’s exactly what he did. After Newt Gingrich jumped ahead of him immediately after South Carolina, Romney began to use his advantage in funding to pound Gingrich in the media. It didn’t take long for Romney to regain his lead and begin expanding it. It also helped that, unlike in South Carolina, Romney performed well in both of the Florida debates. He now hopes to dominate the seven contests in February, beginning with Nevada on Saturday, where he turned in his best performance of 2008 with 51% of the vote. Wins in all or most of the February contests would give him a head of steam going into Super Tuesday the first week in March.
Rick Santorum finished a distant third, but he didn’t spend much time in Florida, other than coming there for the two debates. He chose instead to campaign in some of the states which hold their contests in early February. Speaking of the debates, Santorum did get lots of accolades for his performance in the second one. However, it didn’t seem to do him much good at the polls in Florida. He will likely hang in there, at least in the near future. He is hoping to perform well enough in upcoming states like Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado to stay in the race through Super Tuesday. But he’ll have to start winning (or at least coming in a close second) somewhere soon or his funds will dry up and force him out before he ever gets there.
Ron Paul’s fourth-place finish with just 7% of the vote was by far his worst performance so far, but like Santorum, he pretty much skipped Florida. While Romney and Gingrich were battling it out in Florida, Paul was campaigning in Maine and Nevada, the sites of the first two caucuses in February. Paul even seems confident that he might be able to actually win in Maine. He also hopes to be very competitive in the Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota caucuses. He still insists that he’s in the race to the end.
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Top-level comments on this article: (1 total)Good article Terry and analyzed near perfectly. I hate it, because I believe Newt Gingrich to be the best informed man as to what we need to get this nation on the right track. But I've said it before, I can accept Romney, especially if he is capable of beatign Obama. He leaves much to be desired but sill has his head on pretty straight.Yes, Joel, this was a setback for Gingrich, but he can still recover. I see about 30 states where he could possibly win. He will likely sweep all of what was once known as the "Solid South" with the exception of Virginia, where he didn't get on the ballot. By the way, Florida is not a real Southern state. In addition, he is currently leading in Minnesota, which holds its caucus next week, and in Ohio, which goes on Super Tuesday. He's also tied with Romney for the lead in the latest Arizona poll. He's not on the ballot for the Missouri "beauty contest" primary next week, but he's on that state's caucus ballot on March 17. Fortunately for him, the caucus (not the primary) will pick that state's delegates. Gingrich is currently leading in the polls for that caucus, with Santorum second and Romney third. Gingrich could also do well in other states in the upper midwest and west. There 46 more states to go. Stay tuned ...
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