Analysis of the 2012 Nevada GOP Caucuses
Posted: Saturday, February 04, 2012
by Terry Mitchell
http://commenterry.blogs.com
Mitt Romney wins as expected, but falls slightly short of the 51% he got in Nevada in 2008. He had been spending time there ever since, and he had the added advantage of his fellow Mormons comprising 25% of the caucus-goers. Nevada was indeed friendly territory, and he benefited from it. Although he’s probably favored in Colorado and Minnesota on Tuesday, he might not find the going quite as easy in those states. Perhaps that was why he played his Nevada win for all it was worth, and then some.
Ron Paul came in third behind Gingrich, even though he spent around $350,000 on ads in the state. He had also campaigned there previously in 2008 and had spent a lot more time there than did Gingrich. His organization was also supposed to help him edge past Gingrich, but it turned out to be overrated. But he will be satisfied to continue accumulating delegates as he did in Nevada.
Rick Santorum finished in last place, making Nevada the fourth consecutive state in which he has not finished in the top two. He will need to turn things around on Tuesday. His best chance is in Missouri’s non-binding primary in which Gingrich is not on the ballot. But if Romney beats him there, and he lets Gingrich finish ahead of him in both Colorado and Minnesota, stick a fork in him – he’s done.
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Top-level comments on this article: (2 total)Colorado (at least the part we live in) seems to lean heavily towards Santorum. Romney is a very good businessman - having said that he looks like the least conservative of any of the choices. However, with Gingrich having a tendency to sort of pop off and stick his foot in his mouth we don't need that with some of the other highly volatile world leaders already out there - throwing in a US president who might speak first and think later would not be a good thing - almost as interesting as Ron Paul's seemingly isolationist (ostrich?) foreign policy.
Then we get to the bottom line - who can beat our currect commander in chief?
Such interesting times we find ourselves in.
We need to remember to VOTE - if you don't vote you don't "get to" complain, eh?
Marijo, I understand your concerns about Newt, but I'm supporting him anyway. I think he's the most conservative candidate in the race, so I'm willing to accept some goofiness on his part. However, Santorum is almost as conservative, so he would be acceptable to me. I don't know if I could support Romney, even if he were the nominee. Besides, he is not a serious candidate and is completely unelectable. He would have 0% (zip, nada, zilch, none) chance of beating Obama in November.
In your state of Colorado, Romney is currently leading Santorum by 14 points. However, the good news for Santorum is that he is currently leading Romney in Minnesota and Missouri, the other two states that conduct their contests on Tuesday. Newt is waiting to make his mark on Super Tuesday, when he could win Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Alaska, and then Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas in subsequent weeks.
Ron Paul is the only different American Candidate. and he is in mass Media Boycott as well. if one follows Yahoo News for example it will be evident in the comments.Yes, Abolghasem, Ron Paul is different allright - very different. Sometimes I'm not sure whether that's good or bad.
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